French bank Natixis recommends Germany leave the EU

Sur des bases purement macroéconomiques, l’Allemagne devrait sortir de la zone euro (PDF)

There are of course many (geo-strategic policy, …) non-economic reasons to form a monetary union. But we limit ourselves to purely macroeconomic arguments, which suggest that Germany should leave the euro zone:

• asymmetry of cycles between Germany and the rest of the euro zone;
• weakening economic ties between Germany and the rest of the
Eurozone;
• structural asymmetries between Germany and the rest of the euro area
(sectoral structure of the economy, savings behavior and
demography, labor market rules);
• different needs of Germany and the rest of the euro area in
respect to exchange rate policy;
• inability of the euro area excluding Germany to make
“Internal devaluation.”

(Google Translate)

 

Meanwhile Saxo Bank’s Steen Jakobsen says:

Expect “Dramatic Slowdown” in Germany

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Greece, the odd one, still in.

In July the IMF came out with a harsh assessment about Greece.

Yet Greece still faces a €4.4 billion ($5.8 billion) funding gap next year, the IMF warns. It has given Greek officials a deadline of early October, when the draft 2014 budget goes to parliament, to find ways of covering the shortfall. The options are clear: unless tax revenues increase sharply during the rest of this year, “a credible 2014 budget would again need to be centred on painful expenditure cuts,” it says.

Bruegel looks at the trade adjustment in the euro area and Greece clearly sticks out, albeit for the wrong reasons.

Balance of trade adjustment in the euro area

Here is the good news:

Greece reduced its deficit from -14.5% to -2.3% over the last five years, and it is forecasted to nearly close the gap by 2014.

Tourism is also looking up:

Marketing Greece: Tourism leading the country’s gradual recovery.

Here is where it starts looking worrying as Greece seems to have completely decoupled from the euro zone.

Bruegel

Bruegel

In Greece, the price effect played a major role as rising export prices (+16%), offset the decrease in export volumes (-13%).

Bruegel

Bruegel

It can be noted that the drop in Greek imports is even larger (-44%) considering constant prices. On the other hand, Greece was the country with the fastest growing import prices (+21%).

Bruegel

Bruegel

While Germany is still fully involved in getting a government coalition off the ground and intent on sticking to strong austerity terms, it does not seem to work as intended.

This theory does not apply to Greece, which did not manage to substitue domestic demand by increasing exports. The underlying reason might be the absence of a strong tradeable sector. Therefore, wage adjustment does not necessarily help to support exports, since the economy is not able to shift towards an export orientated business model.

Full post here

If you ask Hans-Werner Sinn, these Club Med printing presses have to go.

He’s back and Germany’s Hans Werner Sinn had another bad day.

Who protects the bailout of the ECB?

There is just too much money sloshing around in the EU and it comes from all the wrong places. The usual suspects are at it again.

About 80 percent of the monetary base of the Eurosystem are caused by credit or open market operations of the central banks of the six crisis countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Cyprus), although these countries account for only a third of the economic strength of the euro area up.

How do they do this?

The rental of the printing press

A pictorial metaphor of electronic payment transactions that are behind the Target balances is so: The south prints the money he needs to buy in the north patrimonial goods and objects, as well as redeem old notes, and the central banks of the North shred the previously already spent money because it is no longer needed as a lubricant for domestic transactions. It is thus quasi awarded the (electronic) printing press from the north to the south, which establishes the target assets and liabilities.

That is bad behavior but let’s see about this excessive note issuance:

At this point in our story we can almost feel the frustration and anger building inside our northern European readers. “Yet another way the euro system help siphon of my hard earned money to profligate southerners!

But that is NOT the case! Excessive note issuance is (almost) inversely related to sovereign bond yields! The deeper a country has sunk into the euro-quagmire, the less the NCB has resorted to excessive note issuance!

Bawerk

Bawerk

Bawerk

Bawerk

This looks rather tame but back to HW Sinn as he dishes out more bad news:

The undercutting of the capital market with the printing press is now the main reason that the German banks and insurers can not earn risk-adjusted interest rates and more insurers are even forced to withdraw their interest guarantees.

Which in the end means that German banks would be just fine and that Germany’s hard workers will lose, yet again, on their life insurance nest egg.

Publishing photos of looted Nazi art find could hurt ownership feelings and induce orgasmic sensations in other people like Meike Hoffmann has experienced.

The presser started off with a vivid description of the almost orgasmic spams art Amazone Meike Hoffmann experienced when her eyes fell on those pieces of art. She was touched for the very first time. Chief state prosecutor Nemetz had to somewhat calm her down in order to get the presser back on track.

No, the pics would not be published which was a huge relief for the actual owners who feared that by not knowing what paintings were actually found in the place where A. Hitler started his awesome career they might lay claim to art they did not know exists. And perhaps overpay.

Meike Hoffmann also refused to give any financial assessment as to the value of those pics so as not to hurt feelings of potential claimants for a shabby piece of a cheap sketch.

The audience was relieved to hear the paintings were no more in the place where they used to be, rather in a secure secret place because at this point it was of the utmost importance to first thoroughly assess all tax implications about the euro 9,000 discovered with Mr. Gurlitt in a train 2 years ago.

Focus magazine discovered the loot was stored unsecured in Mr. Gurlitt’s apartment and Focus journalists voiced their concerns over this rather reckless way to keep such treasures.

The presser took a very interesting twist at 11:18 when Chief state prosecutor Nemetz admonished a journalist saying “it would have been counterproductive to go public with this. We did not want to keep the pictures and besides I have no fucking idea who Klimt is.”

The 11th hour could have brought the venue to a full stop when one journo asked how the heck Focus got wind of the whole story to which the Chief replied he would also love to know that, get his hands on that guy and he would gladly hand a trophy to that person before squeezing his balls.

So if you have any claims or have the feeling to perhaps have some, this would be a good time to come forward.

Timeline of Augsburg presser here. It’s in German, you have been warned.

Some accuse Bavarian judicial establishment of secrecy and lack of transparency.

“Restitution work is alive and well”, says Christopher Marinello in a video and that was directed straight at Germany. That translates into PAY, Germany.

Prozess um Doppelmord von KraillingBut before we delve a little more into this sordid new thing coming straight out of Munich, launchpad of A. Hitler, it might sound interesting to hear the speaker of the Upper Court of Munich.

Before the cameras speaker Mr. Andreas Titz professes that  details of the trove found in Munich in 2011, gee that’s 2 years ago,  although the German FAZ says it was 2012 which makes it even more mysterious, “is due to the nature of this case at present classified.” What, those paintings were found during a police raid 2 years ago! Still classified?

Well, so much from Munich’s court on this. Let’s look how this was published on the Focus website and Paul Murphy from FT Alphaville has the scoop. The placement of the article is not bad, for example right above some big tits in the Panorama section.

FT Alphaville

FT Alphaville

Murphy is somewhat incredulous: “Is that credible, that in-the-loop art historians have been keeping mum about a secret €1bn prize hoard of Impressionist fare for more than two years? And no one in the police blabbed, or anyone else in the German establishment? Did the major auction houses know? Is there a case for a Stewards into the art market here??”

Well Paul, one answer might be this is Munich and this is the Munich justice system. How about this here from 1980?

Anyway, then there is a certain Mrs. Meike Hoffmann.

FT Alphaville:

Hoffmann is an expert in “degenerate art.” In fact she runs the Degenerate Art Research Centre at Freie Universität. See these previously designated degenerate sculptures she helped uncover three years back.

The Guardian tried to get in touch with her for some information on the art pieces:

Since their seizure, they have been stored in a safe customs building outside Munich, where the art historian Meike Hoffmann, from Berlin university, has been assessing their precise origin and value. When contacted by the Guardian, Hoffmann said she was under an obligation to maintain secrecy and would not be able to comment on the Focus report until Monday.

Why all this secrecy? Might it come to light that German authorities were in cahoots, knew everything? Want to keep the loot? Bavaria is certainly a seedy place.

Anne Webber, founder and co-chair of the commission for Looted Art in Europe.

“It’s actually been two and a half years since these paintings were found, and they’ve been kept completely secret. And there are some very hard questions for the Bavarian government about why they’ve kept this list secret.”

“We need to ask why they haven’t published a list of all the paintings that have been found, so that the families who are looking for their paintings – and have been looking for the past 75 years – can find them, and have them returned to them,” she added.

Here is more on Bavaria in the Telegraph:

“There is a culture of secrecy in Bavaria, and other parts of Germany – but particularly there. We need a culture of transparency and to return these works as quickly as possible.”

She said that many people who dealt with looted Nazi art were interrogated after the war, but claimed that they didn’t have anything.

They then continued to sell the works – “trading it, laundering it, particularly in Bavaria,” said Mrs Webber.

You have to wonder what is behind the extreme reluctance to provide information,” says Anne Webber, of the London-based Commission for Looted Art in Europe. “We have reminded the Bavarian authorities of the need for transparency and requested a full list of the works. So far we have had no response.

“Germany was a signatory to the Washington Principles in 1998 and 1999, along with 44 other countries, making a commitment to identifying the looted works in their collections and publishing the results. Bavarian state collections contain thousands of works acquired during the Nazi period, but they have failed to publish any list. An annotated catalogue of one of the main dealers of the Nazi era was discovered, saying which families the works were taken from and their eventual owners. This would be fantastically useful to the families concerned who are hoping to create a link with their past. This also hasn’t been published.”

The Telegraph gets it right about rotten Bavaria, they are racists:

It is tempting to see this apparent blocking by the Bavarian authorities as something more than the embarrassment that characterises Germany’s official response to its 20th-century past: bloody-mindedness, perhaps, or even belligerence. Bavaria is synonymous, certainly from a British perspective, with social and political conservatism. Munich, though it was an avant garde stronghold early in the century – home to Klee and Kandinsky – provided the platform for Hitler’s rise to power. You don’t have to dig too far below the surface in this part of Germany to encounter an attitude of “what more do these Jews want from us”.

Yet this apparently wilful obfuscation regarding the return of looted works of art is far from exclusively Bavarian. Webber quotes culture minister Bernd Neumann, who declared recently that until the thousands of looted art works in German museums are returned to their owners, there can be no line drawn under this issue. Hanover’s Sprengel Museum, for example, home of the largest collection of the works of Kurt Schwitters, one of the most notable of the banned “degenerate” artists, has yet to publish a list of contested works. The head of the German Museums Association recently went on record as saying that the reluctance to publish lists of works is tied to the likelihood of large numbers of claims.

Whole Telegraph article here

A reality check might be in order for Germany in this NSA thingy.

Spying on other countries, heads of state, armies, companies etc. is at least 4,000 years old. Germany has not managed to be that old but it has managed to lose two big wars in the relatively short time span of 40 years.

To begin with, the start of the new FRG was a little rocky: The first chancellor of the new Federal Republic of Germany refused to pay compensation to the jews and had to be pressured by the US.

Germany has a history of undermining boycotts against rogue countries. Being totally dependent on exports it continued to do business with Iraq under Saddam Hussein, and continues to do so with North Korea, with Iran, and the tanks deal with Saudi Arabia is simmering on. Presently it is using Poland and Turkey as a financial conduit for its secret exports business with Iran. That is not particularly endearing to the USA.

The corruptest CEO of Germany, Heinrich (“Act like soldiers”) von Pierer had the temerity of bribing for international business big time. That did not go down well with its main competitor GE and the US and Siemens is still in the doldrums. Guess why?

Chancellor Merkel refused to join the Libya mission and actions against Syria. She keeps bungling the EU crises and thus hampering any progress to get the world economy back on track.

Not to forget the hanging sword over her of an alleged (alleged???) membership with the Stasi. That is pretty big baggage she is carrying around. So the US naturally wants to know what the Lady is talking.

Her ad nauseam imploring of being partner with the USA and being friends with the USA is based on a total misunderstanding what a partner is in the world community. Germany has never been a partner with the US and it is not a member of the Five Eyes. Germany has no army to speak of and if an international conflict crops up, Germany hides behind her constitution.

Germany  has never even been a partner with Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal and Spain and … Germany is the paymaster for these countries as long as she has the financial capacity for she must pay in order to keep the club from breaking up.

9/11 was planned in Hamburg and the German intel had no clue. Germany has pretty open borders and not all new arrivals have benign intentions. German authorities showed their total incompetence (willingly?) in the NSU affair.

Making yourself dependent on Russian gas is not something the USA can afford to be unconcerned about.

Obama’s latest visit to Berlin showed very clearly who is calling the shots and who stands pat. He made it conspicuously clear when someone is allowed to take off the coat during a public speech. He as a guest made that statement!

The German press seems to be delirious in saying the American public is concerned about these spyings. I am sorry guys but Joe Sixpack does not give a rat’s ass about Germany and why should he?

Glenn Greenwald in The Guardian:

There are three points worth making about these latest developments.

First, note how leaders such as Chancellor Angela Merkel reacted with basic indifference when it was revealed months ago that the NSA was bulk-spying on all German citizens, but suddenly found her indignation only when it turned out that she personally was also targeted. That reaction gives potent insight into the true mindset of many western leaders.

Second, all of these governments keep saying how newsworthy these revelations are, how profound are the violations they expose, how happy they are to learn of all this, how devoted they are to reform. If that’s true, why are they allowing the person who enabled all these disclosures – Edward Snowden – to be targeted for persecution by the US government for the “crime” of blowing the whistle on all of this?

If the German and French governments – and the German and French people – are so pleased to learn of how their privacy is being systematically assaulted by a foreign power over which they exert no influence, shouldn’t they be offering asylum to the person who exposed it all, rather than ignoring or rejecting his pleas to have his basic political rights protected, and thus leaving him vulnerable to being imprisoned for decades by the US government?

Had it not been for his throbbing shlong, German homeland-security agent Andreas T. might have heard one of twelve foreigners being shot in his vicinity

smart_phone2

When Halit Yozgat was fatally shot in an internet café in the german city of Kassel german homeland-security agent Andreas T. heard a bang as he was sitting in the rear part of just that internet café but was unable to parse the loud bang he had witnessed with anything that could possibly be a real explanation.  Only days laters did he learn about the killing from a newspaper which is apparently the modus operandi how german intelligence agents get their riveting news.

He had paid though 50 cents on that particular day by putting them on the desk behind which the slain Mr. Yozgat was lying dead on the floor. Special agent Andreas T. did not see this.

But there was another much more important reason behind his temporary inability to display just a semblance of professionalism: he felt running the risk that his wife might learn about his frequent visits of online sex chat forums.

This came to the light during the whitewash NSU (national-socialist underground) trial currently being conducted in Munich, launch pad of Adolf Hitler a couple decades back. There can be no doubt that if anybody is looking Fuehrer justice to be served, he came to the Reich place in Bavaria.

Oh, Germany has meanwhile dispensed with his excellent services of protecting the constitution and it is to be hoped that Andreas T. has copious time for masturbating furiously in front of a monitor.

The whole ridiculousness of this revolting shit here and here. (run it through Translate)