I tend to shy away from politics but this post is pretty much spot on. I do not agree on his take about the ridiculous AFD which went from an alleged 25% support some 5 or 6 months ago down to 3% and from an exit of Germany from the euro to an exit of Club Med from the euro to the ultimate idiocy of contemplating a coalition with the CDU in case …
Here’s The Slog:
All Quiet on the Election Front: Merkel’s CDU is plodding tediously to victory, but the Germans will regret this sooner than they realise.
There’s an eerie feeling of Phoney War around the EU and US markets at the moment, and by far the biggest factor (I suspect) is the German election. The German media in turn seem largely uninterested in the Election itself, regarding yhe entire event as pretty much a foregone conclusion. Over the last few months, it’s probably fair to say that Peer Steinbruck (leader of the Opposition SPD) has done an excellent job of making himself a credible alternative to Angela Merkel – should she ever stumble. But at the moment, she shows little sign of doing so. Although Steinbruck won the TV debate hands down, the polls later showed her still way out ahead on most dimensions. On absolute voter intentions, her CDU has 39% to the SPD’s 28%.
His post ends with a stark reminder to ze Germans:
But as is so often the case, the external data suggest that the German majority is hopelessly wrong. There is in fact every chance that a broader ClubMed insolvency will lead to 0utright default in Italy and Spain. Germany couldn’t afford this, and that’s why – bizarrely – Merkel the faux Euro-unionist may within two years be taking Germany out of the ezone, and splitting the financially incontinent continent into two diametrically different halves. The riddle – and the dilemma – remains which one France is going to wind up in. The Germans who love to go a-wanderung are, in truth, meandering towards disaster with the same blasé optimism of the Weimar middle class after 1931.
full post here
And in the unlikely event that the Germans have some doubt about what’s in store for them despite this awesome export
dependency machine, here are some graphs: