Der Merkel Placebo: “Die Einlagen sind sicher”

Explizit bestätigt von ex-Nachrichtenableser Steffen Seibert: “Es ist das Merkmal einer Garantie, dass sie gilt”. Wenn ein Autohändler die Versicherung ausspräche, dieses Auto hätte die Garantie das es fährt, man würde Zweifel ob seines ursprünglichen Kaufinteresses bekommen.

Interfluidity fragt:

Why do investors’ believe empty promises, and invest through banks what they would have hoarded in a world without?

Like so many good con-men, bankers make themselves believed by persuading each and every investor individually that, although someone might lose if stuff happens, it will be someone else.

Intransparenz ist das Resultat von Komplexität, die aufgebaut wird/wurde, um eben dieser Intransparenz Rationalität zu verleihen:

Opacity and interconnectedness among major banks is nothing new. Banks and sovereigns have always mixed it up. When there has not been public deposit insurance there have been private deposit insurers as solid and reliable as our own recent “monolines”. “Shadow banks” are nothing new under the sun, just another way of rearranging the entities and guarantees so that almost nobody believes themselves to be on the hook.

Und in diesem Sinne ist eine Garantie eben eine solche, als sie als solche dekretiert wurde.

Nick Rowe memorably described finance as magic. The analogy I would choose is finance as placebo. Financial systems are sugar pills by which we collectively embolden ourselves to bear economic risk. As with any good placebo, we must never understand that it is just a bit of sugar. We must believe the concoction we are taking to be the product of brilliant science, the details of which we could never understand. The financial placebo peddlers make it so.

Die Finanzierung eines Staates unterscheidet sich in nichts von den Finanzgeschäften ordinärer Geschäftsbanken.

Sovereign finance should be viewed simply as a form of banking. Sovereigns raise funds for unspecified purposes and promise risk-free returns they may be unable to provide in real terms. When things go wrong, bondholders think taxpayers should be on the hook, and taxpayers think bondholders should pay. As usual, everyone has a patsy, someone else was supposed to take the hit. Ex ante everyone was assured they have nothing to fear.

Die Vorteile dieser Intransparenz müssen abgewägt werden gegen ein Szenario, in dem der Placebo erkannt wird und seine Wirkung verliert:

The (real!) benefits to opacity that I’ve described must be weighed against the profound, even apocalyptic social costs that obtain when the placebo fails, especially given the likelihood that placebo peddlars will continue their con long after good opportunities for investment at scale have been exhausted. By hiding real economic risks from those who ultimately bear them, status quo financial systems blunt incentives for high-quality capital allocation. We get capital allocation in bulk, but of low quality.

Artikel hier.

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